So this Caravan event is about random drops based on the following criteria:
- Score rank (C/B/A/S), higher rank the better chance
- Difficulty (Debut to M@ster), more difficult the better chance
- Color of the day, where a higher chance of dropping rotates daily
- Star Rank of your center idol in the team, every rank increases drop rate by some percentage.
Based on JP twitter, the SR drop rate at max of these (up to Star Rank 15) is about 15%. You can squeeze these four knobs however which way you can squeeze them, but there are some diminishing returns. For example I think 18 Stamina M@ster is about the same as 19 Stamina. A rank might be pretty close to S rank. You get what I’m saying.
What isn’t close is Star Level 5 (N) and Star Level 10 (R). Just on the fact that unless you have SSRs to carry your team, it’s just too hard to S rank with a N center consistently. And honestly an extra 5 Star Levels might not be worth the gap between B and S. That’s also to say, the gap between SL5 and SL10 is really big.
Numerically speaking based on a small sample size, Honoka drops much more often than Syoko. JP Twitter seems to say 2% for Syoko under optimal conditions and close to 13% for Honoka, but I doubt it. More off-the-cuff observational anecdotes: there is an inflection point in the numerical formula for drop rate that if you don’t get past it, your drop rate will be a straight, low, dire percentage. Once you do, it’s in the teens. Two people I know already have 10+ Honoka by the halfway point of the event. Pretty much everybody playing it with any kind of rigor has a Honoka already. I personally am at 7 Honoka and 5 Mushrooms.
The longer game here, for those of you more casual to the Deresute, is that getting these SRs can buff your support team, who are the 15 strongest idols beyond your team of 5, that are automatically selected, when you select a team to do a live. The other long game is that you want 3 high-star-ranked idols so you can farm events like these in the future. Or starting this one. The max rank for SR is 15, which is why you want 15 Honoka as soon as you can to start farming Syokos or whatever.
Anyway, that’s the strategy. The silly thing about it is that hardcore Ps already summoned armies of both idols on day one of the caravan due to the DereSute team screwing up the drop rate on low difficulty songs. And then today they screwed up the announcement for card drops with potentially what comes with the next event (heavily rumored to be Nation Blue).
Deresute has been full of treat, so the tricks can go as is. Also they extended the campaign for gems another 15 days so uh… Let those 10-draws fly guys?