DereSute Week 12: The Passion Compression, Luck

We’re still being tested on.

The event cycles are shorter this second go-around. If we mark the start of the NB event to the start of the Ponkutsu event that marks a cycle. The start of the NB event to the eventual start of the Orasapp event will be the second one, beginning on 11/20.

All the events in this go-around are shorter. As a result I only scored 10 Azuki SRs, when I squeezed out 15 Honoka in the first caravan. That is a bummer but I can live with this.

I did okay in the medley event. I didn’t like it much, but I begrudgingly admit it helped my game by forcing me to play songs too hard or uncomfortable for grinding. I spent more stamina dying than ever. I also spent like 100 jewels on continues. Learning when to quit was important, but thankfully I didn’t have that many opportunities to do so. At the end I was at the cusp of the 50k rank border but I was only aiming for 100k anyway.

I hated it, in retrospect, because it required you to play songs back to back with no ways to adjust system settings. It was only good in that you can burn all your stamina without playing anything, then find a chunk of time to grind out 8 songs in a row a few hours later.

But, how long will the OraSapp event run? This is an inflection point.

===

Just today I had a discussion on the daily 60 jewels. It’s a no-brainer that the odds of getting a nice card from doing it is better per-jewel than the 2500 pull. But the human mind doesn’t work this way. To break it out:

  • You will always get 1 SR or SSR from a 2500 pull.
  • There’s a roughly 66% chance of getting 2 SR from a 2500 pull.
  • There’s a roughly 66% chance of getting 1 SR from 9x 60 jewel pull.

So the satisfaction is good on 2500 pulls. Yeah, there’s a third chance that you will not go home with more than 1 SR, but that’s less often than not.

FWIW, here’s some more to think about

  • Odds of getting 3 SR or better in a 2500 pull: ~11%
  • Odds of getting 4 SR or better in a 2500 pull: ~3.7%
  • Odds of getting 1 SSR in a 2500 pull: 4.9%
  • Odds of getting 2 SSR in a 2500 pull: ~0.2%

That 11.5% chance of pulling a SR or better everyday for 60 jewels sounds pretty good now doesn’t it. And I think this is why I do the 60 jewel pull–it’s kind of fun, cheap, and you can do it everyday.

I didn’t do it everyday. I didn’t keep track which days I missed or skipped, or the days I double-dipped due to new cards being released (you can pull 2 times on those days, once before and once after patch). Say I did it 80 times since the start. I have just 5 SR from all of it (my luck sucks). That still means I did better with 4800 jewels than if I rolled 2500 jewels twice for 20 pulls–a median case of 4 SRs, accounting for very average luck (close to half the time this is the result). And 5 out of 80 is pretty shoddy luck if my chances are 11.5% of getting something that good or better.

When she goes Mika dayo I just laugh because

Now that the TP hip thrust is for the public, how do you guys feel about it? I think the concensus is that Anzu no Uta is still the hardest song (and I have not yet cleared it on Master!) while TP and Legne are just below that (I cleared those pretty okay actually). Romantic Now is now my favorite song to play, and for 27 stars it’s really easy? I have less problems with it than Let’s Go Happy.

Man, Kirari and Mika voiceover for event announcement. That’s advancement in mobile gaming if anything.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.